Weather Corner

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"How would you like to be buried in 5 feet of snow?"
POSTED BY: JORDAN OVERTON
November 19, 2014

This cold has been to the extreme. In fact, on November 19th, The U.S. experienced it's coldest morning on record since 1976! Tulsa also set a new record low of 14 degrees! The previous record was 19 set back in 1951.

We also saw some wintry precipitation this past weekend! Here's some of the totals from the Tulsa National Weather service office: 


If you'd like to see more snow, then I'd advise you to move to Buffalo, NY area! So far they have received around 5 FEET 5 inches! It's incredible! Why are they seeing this? It's called lake effect snow. How does it work? Here's a graphic explaining what is going on: 



Photo Credit: NOAA


Basically, You have cold air moving over warm water. that creates the clouds and then eventually causes the snow. It's a very rare event. The thing about lake affect snow is that one place could see 5 feet, where as 1 mile away could see a foot. Lancaster, NY has gotten around 5' of snow whereas the Buffalo airport got less than 5". Big deal? They are 6 miles away from each other. 



Here's an incurable time-lapse video from Jason Holler & Joseph DeBenedictis of it happening. Notice how it is training in one area the entire time:




The result is this: 
















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"Winter is Here"
POSTED BY: JORDAN OVERTON
November 12, 2014



Well, We did. Thanks to a cold front that was one of the strongest we have seen in this year. Look at a comparison of the highs Monday to the highs Tuesday:



Some places in the panhandle dropped almost 50 degrees! The cold is here to stay, as we can see by the latest run of the GFS model:

Image from www.weatherbell.com

Now, If it's going to be cold, at least we could get some snow, right? Well, we may be in luck! The models are going back and forth on this weekend. This flip flopping is lowering confidence dramatically for the event. The main point I want to stress is there is a good chance for some precipitation Saturday and Sunday, just still unsure what type it will be. For example, Let's compare the GFS run from Wednesday morning to the GFS run from Tuesday morning:

Tuesday Morning GFS snowfall amounts by Sunday at 6PM:

Map from www.weatherbell.com

Now look at what Wednesday mornings run for snowfall amounts by Sunday at 6PM:

Map from www.weatherbell.com

Big differences. It goes from a dusting to a couple inches in parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. My point? Try to forecast a model that is constantly flip flopping back and forth like this. It's a headache. This is why we can't just look at one run and say blizzard or nothing. The run to run consistency is extremely poor, leading to an overall very low confidence forecast.

So you might ask, How do you forecast something like this? Well, we wait till the model shows some better run to run consistency. Typically, as we get closer to the event the higher accuracy the model has. What can I take away from this? The model is consistently putting out some sort of precipitation, just unsure what type it will be. We will have to watch what the temperatures are higher up in the atmosphere and what the surface temperatures are by the time the weekend comes.

As we are talking about winter precipitation, let's take a quick look at what determines rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain:

Image can be found here: http://www.weathergamut.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/winter_precip.jpg
My two cents(forecast): We could have to deal with some wintry precipitation. Follow me on Twitter and Facebook. I will post the latest information there. You can find the links below:

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"Climate Battles"
POSTED BY: JORDAN OVERTON
OCTOBER 29, 2014



Yes, it really is October. No, It doesn't feel like October. Yes, It was very warm this past weekend. No, this is not normal. Yes, this is Oklahoma.

My friends, We are in a climate battle. Summer and even spring to some extent want to stick around, but old man winter also is ready to make an appearance.  Check out these highs Monday from the Oklahoma Mesonet:



Yeah, It sure felt hot. It also seemed like we were all going to blow away. Check out Monday's maximum wind gusts also from the Oklahoma Mesonet:



Don't you just love living in Oklahoma??

Thursday, we will have a cold front moving through the state. You can watch the temperatures drop as it moves through by clicking here: Current Temperatures In Oklahoma

This reinforcing shot of cold air comes on Thursday. Highs the rest of this week will be more fall-like in the lower 70s and upper 60s. Tulsa's normal high this time of year is right around 70.

Last weekend summer won the battle. This week fall will win the battle. It appears old man winter may be coming to join the fight this weekend. Check out what the GFS is predicting for lows Saturday Morning(This is NOT a forecast):


Notice this is NOT a forecast rather a possibility. Image from WeatherBell.com

And now look at Sunday Morning(NOT a forecast):

Again, NOT a forecast, rather a possibility. Map made by WeatherBell.com

BRRRRR!!!! Just the thought of upper 30s for lows after seeing 80s Monday... Oklahoma is the land of crazy.

My forecast? I think some locations on the far northeastern corner of the state MAY reach the upper 30s. Notice we are still 5 days away from this so it could go either way. That's why you check back for updates on my social media profiles I have listed below. Have a great week!

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"Disappearing Sun"

POSTED BY: JORDAN OVERTON
OCTOBER 22, 2014

This Thursday, October 23, People across the U.S. will be able to experience a rare "Partial Solar Eclipse".

Some of you might ask, What is a Solar Eclipse? The moon is passing in between the sun and the earth. As the moon passes in between, it causes the sun to "Disappear". Here's a graphic from www.nightskyinfo.com with a visual explanation:


Picture and related article can be found here: http://www.nightskyinfo.com/solar_eclipses/



      What is going to be special about this one? It will occur just around Sunset, meaning it's bound to be spectacular!

       For Tulsa, it will start sometime around 4:40 p.m. and last till dark. The best time or peak will occur around 5:48 p.m. It will be partially covered up by the moon, but it is still unsafe to stare directly at the sun. Be sure to take the proper precautions when observing it. 

We are expecting some showers Thursday morning, but most of the activity will end by the evening. A few clouds may linger, which actually might make it look even better! 
Temperatures will be comfortable in the 70s. 

Follow Jordan Overton on Twitter: @JordanoWX

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RAIN! RAIN! RAIN!

POSTED BY: JORDAN OVERTON
OCTOBER 15, 2014 


You were warned! We actually got it right this time as most of the state received much needed and beneficial rainfall! Check out some of these rainfall totals the past 7 days from the Oklahoma Mesonet:

Tulsa International Airport got 2.54" of rain officially. We are down by 9.19" for the year. That's still a good improvement from where we were at the beginning of October. Willburton was the big winner racking in a whopping 7.18"!

Hope you enjoyed these recent rains, because it looks like we may stay dry in the extended forecast. Here's the latest outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center:


6-10 day precip outlook. Image can be found here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php

8-14 Day precip outlook. Image can be found here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

A weak frontal boundary moves through late this week but looks like there will not be any moisture to interact with it. Models have been giving us some mixed signals on a system moving in next week, so confidence remains extremely low as far as rain chances go. Temperatures are looking great this weekend, so that's something to be happy about! 



Follow Jordan Overton on Twitter: @JordanoWX 

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